Will Pipes Freeze in Erie County, PA? 41 nights a Year
Freeze nights in Erie County
In a normal year Erie County, PA gets 41 nights at or below 20°F, the point where bare pipes in a garage, attic or outside wall start to freeze. That is more than 56% of US counties.
Risk level: Severe. The risk season runs November to March, worst in January.
It depends where the pipe is
| Pipe | Freezes near | Nights a year |
|---|---|---|
| Outdoor spigot, open crawlspace | 32°F | 113 nights |
| Bare pipe in garage, attic or outside wall | 20°F | 41 nights |
| Insulated pipe in unheated space | 10°F | 12 nights |
| Inside the heated house | 0°F | 2 nights |
Foam-sleeving a bare pipe in unheated space takes it from 41 nights of risk to 12 nights. A 12 ft heat-tape kit runs $17 to $37; an average burst-pipe repair is about $500.
Month by month
Nights at or below 20°F in a normal year.
First 32°F night is usually around 11/04, last around 04/26. For 20°F: 12/10 to 03/20.
How cold Erie County nights get
Average winter (Dec-Feb) low: 23°F; the coldest month, January, averages 21°F overnight. 8 months normally bring at least one night below 32°F (Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Oct, Nov, Dec). Nights below 10°F, cold enough to freeze insulated pipe in an unheated space, come in January, February, March, December: 12 nights a year, and 2 nights below zero.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21°F | 21°F | 28°F | 38°F | 49°F | 59°F | 64°F | 63°F | 57°F | 46°F | 37°F | 28°F |
Erie County next to its neighbours
Crawford County, PA, 48 km south, gets 52 nights below 20°F to Erie County's 41 nights.
| County | Distance | Below 32°F | Below 20°F | Jan low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erie County, PA | - | 113 nights | 41 nights | 21°F |
| Crawford County, PA | 48 km south | 130 nights | 52 nights | 18°F |
| Ashtabula County, OH | 59 km southwest | 132 nights | 51 nights | 18°F |
| Chautauqua County, NY | 60 km east | 125 nights | 48 nights | 19°F |
| Warren County, PA | 73 km southeast | 165 nights | 73 nights | 14°F |
| Venango County, PA | 84 km south | 146 nights | 58 nights | 18°F |
| Mercer County, PA | 92 km south | 156 nights | 67 nights | 16°F |
Erie County within PA
Erie County ranks 51 of 67 PA counties for nights below 20°F. The most is Susquehanna County, PA at 80 nights, with a 15°F average winter low. The fewest is Delaware County, PA: 15 nights, winter lows near 28°F. At 679 ft, Erie County sits 462 ft below the state's median county elevation of 1,141 ft.
What to do here
- Treat it as a building fix, not a night-of routine: insulate, heat tape, seal crawlspace vents.
- An automatic leak shutoff pays for itself if one burst is avoided.
- Know where the main shutoff is before the first hard freeze.
Interior pipes have a threshold too: the four freeze points.
Where this comes from
NOAA 1991-2020 climate normals, blended from 3 nearby stations and adjusted for elevation; closest is Erie International Airport, PA, 8 km away (close match). A normal year, not tonight's forecast: check the forecast low for the night itself. Why elevation is part of the blend: how county numbers are made.